There’s a temptation, when reading something like Rise of the Machines – Drone Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War by Illya Sekirin, to focus on the technology. The drones, the sensors, the strike capability. And to be fair, Sekirin makes a compelling case that drones have become central to modern warfare.
But if you read it as a military logistician, and especially through a New Zealand historical lens, something else stands out.
This isn’t really a book about drones, it’s a book about what happens when logistics becomes visible on a battlefield where nothing stays hidden
What comes through clearly in Sekirin’s account is just how exposed everything is. Movement is seen. Patterns are picked up. Supply routes are identified and targeted. Even something as basic as moving a casualty becomes a risk calculation. The idea of a “rear area” doesn’t really hold anymore.
For anyone who has spent time thinking about sustainment, that should land heavily. Because once logistics is constantly observed, it stops being a support function sitting behind the fight. It becomes part of the fight itself, that’s the real shift, and yet, none of this is entirely new
If you step back from the technology for a moment, the pattern is familiar.
New Zealand has been here before, not with drones, but with disruption.
- In the New Zealand Wars, logistics had to adapt to terrain and isolation
- In the First World War, it had to scale rapidly and integrate into something much larger
- In the Second World War, it had to keep up with mechanisation and long-distance sustainment
- In later operations, it learned to operate across environments, but largely with secure supply chains
Each time, the system that existed at the start wasn’t quite fit for purpose, it adapted, not perfectly, not neatly, but effectively enough.
The difference this time
Where Rise of the Machines feels different is in what it quietly exposes about the present.
For the last few decades, New Zealand, like many others, has operated in a relatively stable environment. Defence spending tightened, logistics was streamlined, and commercial practices crept in. Efficiency became the measure of success.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with that. It made sense at the time, but it did lead us somewhere to a system that is:
- lean
- centralised
- dependent on external supply chains
- and designed to run smoothly when nothing is seriously interfering with it
Reading Sekirin’s account, you can’t help but feel how exposed that kind of system would be in the environment he describes, because that environment is the opposite of lean and smooth.
The uncomfortable realisation
The most useful takeaway from this book isn’t that drones are important. It’s that they’ve accelerated something that was already happening.
They’ve made disruption constant, and that has made logistics targetable at scale, which has removed the buffer that logistics has traditionally relied on: time, space, and relative safety.
This leads to a slightly uncomfortable thought that a system that is highly efficient in peace can be surprisingly fragile in war.
So where does that leave New Zealand?
If you look at this through a historical lens, the answer isn’t to panic or to try and invent something entirely new, it is to recognise the pattern.
New Zealand has always adapted its logistics to the conditions it faced. The real question is whether it’s still set up to do that quickly enough, because adaptation requires a few things:
- some depth in people and capability
- some room to manoeuvre, and
- systems that don’t lock you into a single way of operating
Those are precisely the things that tend to get trimmed in the name of efficiency.
Overlay that with the post-Cold War peace dividend, reduced defence investment, and the steady commercialisation of logistics functions, and the picture sharpens. The system has not just evolved, it has been deliberately streamlined to the minimum required for peacetime outputs. Efficient, yes. But also thinner and more exposed than it once was.
Looking forward, without overcomplicating it
You don’t need a grand theory to take something useful from Rise of the Machines as a few simple shifts stand out:
- Accept that logistics will be contested, not protected
- Be comfortable with less tidy, less centralised systems
- Build in redundancy, even if it looks inefficient on paper
- Think seriously about how dependent we are on external supply chains, and
- perhaps most importantly, make sure the system can adapt under pressure, not just operate in ideal conditions
None of that is revolutionary. In many ways, it’s a return to fundamentals, albeit applied in a far more demanding environment.
Final thought
If you read this book purely as a story about drones, you’ll come away thinking the future is about technology, however, if you read it as a logistician, especially one interested in history, you come away with a different impression.
The tools have changed. The pressures have intensified. The pace has increased, but the underlying lesson is the same one that runs through New Zealand’s military past: “The system that works in one era rarely survives unchanged into the next”.
New Zealand has adapted before, often under pressure and at cost, and the lesson from Rise of the Machines is that the next adaptation is already underway.
Recommendation
If you take one thing away from Rise of the Machines – Drone Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War, it should be this: it’s not just a book about a current conflict, it’s a window into how warfare is evolving in real time.
This is not a theory or retrospective analysis. It is grounded in experience and shaped by a battlefield that is changing faster than most institutions can comfortably absorb.
I would strongly recommend it to anyone interested in the development of warfare. Not because it provides neat answers, but because it highlights just how quickly the character of war can shift, and how important it is that the systems behind it, particularly logistics, can shift with it.
